Neither the Islamists nor Americans in Russia’s backyard

In my own opinion the ongoing war in Afghanistan is without any realistic objective. The declared objectives (i.e. to fight terrorism) do not necessitate a full scale invasion by a conventional army. I would imagine something far more subtle and far more effective, such as the reaction the Israelis gave to the Munich massacre of their athletes in 1972, but this did not occur. There is another suggested reason behind the American led invasion, the economic and geopolitical. The control of Afghanistan would facilitate the transport of fossil fuels from the former Soviet republics via Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Indian Ocean and thus eliminate the current Russian monopoly. With the southern Afghanistan and the Pakistani tribal lands out of reach of both Islamabad and Kabul this dream increasingly seems like a cynical lunacy of ‘Brzezinski type’ geostrategic planners. The best thing I believe for the coalition would be to abandon whatever it does in Afghanistan and leave the countries of the region to deal with the security dangers that will ensue from such action.

Meanwhile a regional giant Russia displays an ambivalent attitude towards the American led campaign. It rightly doesn’t like the presence of US military in what was formerly its own colonial extension but it seems it doesn’t want the current government in Afghanistan to fail and leave room for the Islamists either. Russia is playing an interesting game here. In winter of this year, Russia allegedly attempted to pressure and bribe the Kyrgyz government to expel the Americans from the Manas airbase by staging crippling cyber attacks and promising hefty rewards if Bishkek followed suit, Russia denies this. The Americans attempted to rescue the situation by offering Bishkek more rent money and trying to diversify their supply routes one of which included transporting supplies through Pakistan. Both plans are highly unrealistic in the current financial crisis and the constant reports of attacks on convoys in the tribal borderlands of Pakistan but the Americans already made their costly choices.

The Russians later offered their hand to the coalition by allowing transports to be made through its territory, question remains if weapons would also be on the list. This move, if arms are included in the proposal, could eventually make Russia indispensible to the American efforts in Afghanistan as the Central Asians are either economic rackets or totalitarian and highly unpredictable partners to anyone who deals with them. Americans are also not going to find much difficulty when they criticise the Russians on being inadequate in their pursuit of democracy, the Russians simply would not listen to them, unlike the Uzbek leader Islam Karimov who expelled the Americans from their base in Karshi-Khanabad in 2005, following a lecture on democracy.

I think both Russia and the Central Asian republics realise that the American endeavour in Afghanistan is temporary and want to cash in and win influence from the ongoing struggle. Kurmanbek Bakiev’s (the Kygyz leader brought into power by a themed revolution in 2005) double game is the epitome of this ‘cash in on the Americans while you can’ attitude. The Russians are not only making overtures to him however, they court the strongmen of Afghanistan as well, probably anticipating the slow demise of the Americans and eventual withdrawal in the near future. Since 2007 Russians have held talks with the leaders of the Northern Alliance and also starting around the time began helping the government in Afghanistan arm itself. While the Americans may perceive this as undermining their supremacy over their puppets, the Russian objectives are clear. Strong Afghan government will act as a bulwark against the Taliban and the other Islamist groups allied with it.

There has recently been a spike in subversive activity in the Caucasus but Central Asia excluding Afghanistan has also witnessed its portion of trouble. A report from 17 July speaks of a shootout between militants allegedly from Chechnya and Tajik security forces on the Afghan-Tajik border. It is clear that the problems that grip Afghanistan and Caucasus reach far beyond and that the presence of Americans and their coalition partners, however helpful in fighting the Islamists in Afghanistan, is none the less not essential to defeating this menace in the long run. This would rest on the shoulders of regional countries for decades to come.