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Tuesday
Feb162010

Action and Reaction

A while ago I wrote in response to Brzezinski's rants given to The Daily Beast that the American decision to rework the definition of their missile defence shield would still be met with a reaction on the Russian side. The recent announcement by Romania of readiness to host missiles was met by one forum commenter with a following reaction. I can't make an exact reproduction because I don't remember where I saw it, so this is how I remember it...

It will only end in that Russia will recognise Transnistria and install Iskanders there.

I guess this would be predicting events too fast but Transnistria already used the announcement as its window of opportunity. The president of Transnistria Igor Smirnov asked Russians to deploy missile defence in the area. Russia's representative to NATO Dmitri Rogozin diplomatically told Smirnov to shut up while the big boys talk things through. He also said that such developments are detrimental to the security in the region a point also voiced by the former Moldovan president Vladimir Voronin.

However neither did Rogozin exclude the possibility that Smirnov will not be listened to later. Given the eagerness of new NATO members to live up to their newly acquired status and the likelihood of US not backing down on their plans, even the option voiced by anonymous forum user is not excluded.

Hat tip goes out to Michael Averko.

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Reader Comments (9)

I intended to post another comment which I will post latter but reading Rogozin’s twitter account he has released a book in Russia called "The Hawks of Peace". Know anything about it?

http://twitpic.com/13kbxc

February 18, 2010 | Unregistered Commenterjack

I heard about it but that's all I know...

February 18, 2010 | Registered CommenterLeoš Tomíček

@ Jack

Now I know more...

http://www.ozon.ru/context/detail/id/4834002/

February 18, 2010 | Registered CommenterLeoš Tomíček

It's not only the Moldovan Communists against the planned deployment in Romania:

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=14840401&PageNum=0

It reminds me a bit of his poll:

http://www.kyivpost.com/news/nation/detail/59865/

43% of Ukrainians are against the continuation of Russia's naval presence in Crimea. Based on the other poll findings, the majority of the 43% are by no means anti-Russian but anti-militarist. Regarding other polls, note Ukrainian apprehension about seeing Ukraine in NATO.

If I'm not mistaken, this stance is kind of like Anatol Lieven's across the board stances on the armed conflicts in Chechnya and the Middle East.

Agree or disagree, at least there's consistency.

Note how NATO membership is more willingly offered than EU membership and recall the imagery of the guns over butter depiction of the USSR.

February 19, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterMichael Averko

CORRECTION

The poll at the RIAN link has 30% of Ukrainians opposing a post-2017 Russian naval presence in Crimea, with 57% opposed to Ukraine joining NATO.

February 19, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterMichael Averko

Thanks for that comment Michael. I wonder how that poll is reflects across various regions of Ukraine. I bet the Crimean opinion could be totally different to that of Lvov region.

February 19, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterLeoš Tomíček

For sure Leos.

Imagine the greater flack if the Russian navy was somehow situated in Galicia, instead of Crimea.

February 19, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterMichael Averko

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February 20, 2010 | Unregistered CommenterJessicaXq

This isn't a college here, this is my blog!

February 20, 2010 | Registered CommenterLeoš Tomíček

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